Monday, 12 September 2016

Is it time for RBI to cut interest rates ?

The inflation data for the month of August is out. The consumer price index (CPI) fell sharply to 5.05% year-on-year from 6.07% in July, thanks largely to a sharp fall in food prices, which enjoy about 50%  weight in the inflation basket used for CPI calculations. Food inflation has slowed to 5.91% from 8.35% .
  
Also, Industrial output data showed that July index of industrial production (IIP) came in at -2.4 percent, compared to 1.95 percent (revised) in June. 

The Reserve Bank of India( RBI) is going ahead with the inflation targeting of  to bring down CPI to below 5% by January 2017. This target seems achievable, due to the falling food prices and the base effect.  The weakness in the Industrial output however is being largely associated with weak demand for Capital goods globally. 

These two data coupled with Urjit Patel taking over the reins of RBI has increased the hope of a Rate Cut by RBI. The interest rates were last revised in April. Since then many people have been vying for the rates to be cut down. Raghuram Rajan, former RBI Governor,  specifically stated that there was no room for rate cuts as inflation has to be reined in.

Now that inflation seems to be under control and there is a need to revive the industrial output, chances seem high that RBI may cut Rates in its next monetary policy meet.










August consumer price index (CPI) fell sharply to 5.05 percent year-on-year from 6.07 percent in July, thanks a sharp fall in food prices, which enjoy about 50 percent weight in the inflation basket, government data released today showed.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/august-cpi-falls-to-505-july-iip-contracts-by-24_7444961.html?utm_source=ref_article
consumer price index (CPI) fell sharply to 5.05 percent year-on-year from 6.07 percent in July, thanks a sharp fall in food prices, which enjoy about 50 percent weight in the inflation basket, government data released today showed.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/august-cpi-falls-to-505-july-iip-contracts-by-24_7444961.html?utm_source=ref_article
consumer price index (CPI) fell sharply to 5.05 percent year-on-year from 6.07 percent in July, thanks a sharp fall in food prices, which enjoy about 50 percent weight in the inflation basket, government data released today showed.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/august-cpi-falls-to-505-july-iip-contracts-by-24_7444961.html?utm_source=ref_article