Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Monday Market Massacre -effect of the chinese slump

On Monday equity markets allover the world went on a downward spree. This avalanche in the markets was triggered by over 9% rout in the Chinese markets. Chinese markets plummeted owing to the fears of the economic slowdown despite the devaluation of Renminbi. The devaluation of Yuan, officially the Renminbi, led to speculation that the economy is slowing, and this slowdown has led to the devaluation of Yuan to contain this slowdown by increasing exports.But, it seems as though China is on a unmanageable slow down trajectory.And similar fears among the investors has led to an increase in the volatility of the markets.

Tremors of the global equities sell-off were felt in the currency markets, bullion markets, and energy markets.The Rupee hit 66.60 against the US dollar on Monday. The rupee, however, gained 54 paisa to close at 65.87 on Tuesday, as the Chinese central bank cut the interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and the reserve requirement ratio by 0.50 percentage points.Gold prices increased with the rise in fear over the volatility in the global markets while the oil prices continue to be decreasing amidst supply glut.

As far as India is concerned, both the Sensex and Nifty took a beating on Monday but have regained some of their losses in trading on Tuesday.Indian economy though vulnerable to the global changes, especially those in China, is comparatively more robust than other economies due to a variety of factors.First,inflation rate is under control and moderate; second,current account deficit(CAD) is low; third,fiscal deficit is manageable; fourth,growth is still good compared to other major economies; and with positive investor sentiments over increase in the infrastructure spending and most probably the passage of bills like GST.An expected untimely rate cut by RBI is also a major factor which is keeping the market sentiment in high spirits.

Experts have opined that the volatility in the markets will continue mainly due to decreasing manufacturing growth rate in China.The stocks continue to plummet wiping billions from Chinese equity market, amidst the efforts by the Chinese government to contain the losses ,showing that the government efforts have not had the desired effect. What remains to be seen is that will China be able to curtail this downward spiral?


Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Why Oil Prices Are Falling?

The oil prices are falling in the international market with the oil prices on August 10,closing at $49.45 per barrel of oil .But why?
This slump in the oil prices can be understood using rather jejune rules of supply and demand economics.The changes in the supply and demand for any quantity changes the price of the commodity will also change and oil is no exception.So in the present scenario where the supply is going up and the demand is plummeting the prices were meant to go down according to the supply-demand curve.
Now the question arises as to why is there a sudden supply glut and fall in demand of oil?

Enumerated below are the main reasons that have led to this recent over supply and reduced demand for crude-

1)Increased shale oil supply from the US.

2)Unwillingness on the part of OPEC(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries),the oil producing cartel of the gulf countries, to cut own production.

3)Slowdown in the economy of China,which is one of the biggest consumer of oil.This has led to the  demand for oil plummeting in China.

4)Iran Nuclear Deal effect-After Iran signed the historical nuclear deal the trade sanctions on Iran have been lifted.Thus Iran can export more of it's oil to the world.This will lead to increased availability of oil.

5)Paradigm shift in the energy procurement methods adopted by many countries, all over the world, with increased focus on clean energy.
Because of the above stated factors the oil prices are going down and are not going to recover anytime soon.